BetOwl Daily Dossier - Curragh 27th September

The Curragh's Autumn Racing Weekend closes with the sort of card that keeps a punter honest. Two Group 3 races supply the polish, but the €500,000 Irish Cesarewitch is the great sprawling puzzle at its centre. Thirty-three runners go to post over an extended two miles, and the difference between finding a well-handicapped stayer and merely backing a fashionable one is likely to be measured in traffic, patience and stamina.

The straight course was yielding, with the round course good to yielding and sunny intervals forecast. The eight-race card contained 127 active runners after Chain Of Destiny came out of the finale. The official Curragh programme and Racing TV racecard confirmed the schedule and conditions. Prices were refreshed through the signed-in Oddschecker grids at 08:09-08:15 BST.

For more help with the terms used below, visit the horse-racing hub, our each-way betting guide and the Rule 4 guide.

Today's official bets at a glance

NAP: The Reverend at 9/2

NEXT BEST: Cluster at 9/4

Quick race guide

13:25 Juvenile Maiden | 14:00 Nine-Furlong Maiden | 14:35 Renaissance Stakes | 15:10 Sprint Maiden | 15:45 Darley Fillies Stakes | 16:20 Irish Cesarewitch | 16:55 Nursery | 17:30 Amateur Riders' Handicap

Curragh 13:25 | Raging Bull | 3pt win at 5/2, General

NEXT BEST: Hmas Perth

Hmas Perth brings the strongest bare form after chasing home Al Jabbar at Doncaster, but 5/6 asks us to treat improvement as almost inevitable. He was allowed to stride on there and might not dominate so comfortably in a field of sixteen. I would rather side with Raging Bull, whose seventh over this course and distance was better than the finishing position. He was green and briefly lost his place, then rallied through the closing stages in a manner that suggested the experience had not been wasted. Ryan Moore now takes over, the yielding surface should not inconvenience this well-bred Wootton Bassett colt, and 5/2 pays us to find out whether the late promise can become a complete performance.

VERDICT: Raging Bull, 3pt win at 5/2, General. Back at 9/4 or bigger; Hmas Perth is the next best at 5/6.

Curragh 14:00 | Cluster | 3pt win at 9/4, General

NEXT BEST: Kingdom Of Camelot

Kingdom Of Camelot was slowly away when fourth over a mile here and is entitled to improve, but his 11/10 price leaves no margin for another untidy beginning. Cluster finished one place ahead in the same race after being settled in midfield and producing the strongest late surge. The extra furlong looks a positive, Colin Keane retains the ride and Joseph O'Brien's runners are operating at a healthy recent strike-rate. Cluster still has to prove that he can travel with enough purpose before the finish, yet the difference between 9/4 and the favourite's price more than compensates for that uncertainty.

VERDICT: Cluster, 3pt win at 9/4, General. Back at 2/1 or bigger; Kingdom Of Camelot is the next best at 11/10.

Curragh 14:35 | Royal Bay Cen | 2pt win at 5/1, BetVictor, Paddy Power

NEXT BEST: Soul Love

Soul Love has the most dependable current profile after winning two Listed races and finishing second at Naas, while Power Blue sets the ratings standard. Both are priced accordingly. Royal Bay Cen offers the more interesting bet at 5/1. She showed a sharp turn of foot to win at Cork on soft ground and was beaten less than a length when fourth at Naas afterwards. The 133-day absence is the obvious objection, but Johnny Murtagh has had time to prepare her for this autumn target and she receives weight from the older horses. A truly run six furlongs on yielding ground should allow Ben Coen to conserve her speed before asking for it late.

VERDICT: Royal Bay Cen, 2pt win at 5/1, BetVictor, Paddy Power. Back at 9/2 or bigger; Soul Love is the next best at 5/2.

Curragh 15:10 | Otsana | 2pt win at 11/4, Paddy Power

NEXT BEST: Valentino Eclipse

Valentino Eclipse has the best established form, including a near miss at Leopardstown, but he has been absent since June and is short enough at 6/4. Otsana has learned with each start. She raced too freely over seven furlongs here, then came from the rear to snatch third over five at Down Royal. Six furlongs should split the difference, and Paddy Twomey's recent figures suggest she will not lack for readiness. There is enough pace around her to provide cover, and the way she finished last time makes 11/4 a fair price against a favourite returning from a break.

VERDICT: Otsana, 2pt win at 11/4, Paddy Power. Back at 5/2 or bigger; Valentino Eclipse is the next best at 6/4.

Curragh 15:45 | Damsel In Distress | 2pt win at 7/2, Bet365, Betfred

NEXT BEST: Curracloe

Curracloe overcame inexperience and a wide passage to win on debut at Gowran, and she may be the most talented filly in the field. The difficulty is that 5/4 demands another large step on only her second start. Damsel In Distress has already made that journey through maiden and stronger company. Her third over a mile here came from the rear, and the return to seven furlongs should help Colin Keane use her cruising speed rather than leave her with too much to do. An official mark of 95 sets a solid standard, and 7/2 looks generous for a filly whose experience can count when the race begins to tighten.

VERDICT: Damsel In Distress, 2pt win at 7/2, Bet365, Betfred. Back at 3/1 or bigger; Curracloe is the next best at 5/4.

Curragh 16:20 | The Reverend | 2pt win at 9/2, General

NEXT BEST: Tim Toe

The Irish Cesarewitch is not a race for certainty, but The Reverend arrives with the right unfinished look. He was fourth in the Petingo at Leopardstown after being held up, making steady ground and finishing more strongly than almost anything. That was his first Flat run of the year and the move from thirteen furlongs to an extended two miles should suit a horse who has won over further under both codes. Willie Mullins has the depth to aim one precisely at this prize, and Billy Lee is an important booking.

Tim Toe is the strongest alternative at 7/1 after finishing third in the Ascot Stakes, where he travelled into the race before being caught for speed late. Immutable is the bigger-priced second bet. He has progressed through seconds at Cork and Galway to win a 21-runner Leopardstown handicap, and the live 25/1 with seven places is too large even after his penalty. He must prove the longer trip, but his patient style and sustained finish give him a better chance than the market allows.

VERDICT: The Reverend, 2pt win at 9/2, General. Back at 4/1 or bigger. Also back Immutable, 0.5pt e/w at 25/1, Sky Bet, 7 places, at 20/1 or bigger; Tim Toe is the next best at 7/1.

Curragh 16:55 | Two Brigade | 1pt e/w at 17/2, General, 4 places

NEXT BEST: Romance

Moon Sand is the striking market move on handicap debut, but three runs without threatening make 3/1 a leap of faith. Romance is respected after winning at Roscommon and finishing strongly over a mile at Listowel. Two Brigade interests me most at the prices. She came from midfield to finish a close second at Naas six days ago, and the drop back to seven furlongs is less troubling than it first appears because a good pace should draw out her finishing effort. Reese Holohan removes seven pounds, her mark is workable and four places protect the bet against the traffic that can undo a hold-up filly.

VERDICT: Two Brigade, 1pt e/w at 17/2, General, 4 places. Back at 8/1 or bigger; Romance is the next best at 7/2.

Curragh 17:30 | Chipsrdown | 2pt win at 4/1, Bet365, Unibet

NEXT BEST: Justenzia

Chipsrdown has found the winning habit and can complete the hat-trick despite the rise in the weights. He travelled close to the pace before quickening through to win at Leopardstown, then was even more authoritative at Gowran nine days ago. This longer trip is the new question, but his earlier form suggests it is within range and an amateur riders' handicap often rewards a horse able to secure a straightforward position. Justenzia is the next best at 6/1 after finishing second over a mile and a half at Cork, although top weight and the shorter distance ask different questions. Chipsrdown's current momentum makes 4/1 worth taking.

VERDICT: Chipsrdown, 2pt win at 4/1, Bet365, Unibet. Back at 7/2 or bigger; Justenzia is the next best at 6/1.

Best bets of the day

The Reverend is the NAP at 9/2 because his Leopardstown run looked like an ideal preparation for the Irish Cesarewitch and the extended trip should bring improvement. Cluster is the next best at 9/4, with his late Curragh debut effort pointing directly to nine furlongs. Immutable at 25/1 and Two Brigade at 17/2 provide the card's strongest each-way value at their verified terms.

Full staking plan

Total recommended outlay: 19 points, counting each-way selections as separate win and place stakes.

Betting is for adults aged 18 and over. Keep stakes affordable, and remember that no selection is certain.

Horse racing is for adults aged 18 and over. Bet only what you can afford to lose, never chase losses and use the tools in our responsible gambling guide if betting stops feeling controlled.