BetOwl Daily Dossier - Ballinrobe 24th August

Ballinrobe is the principal British or Irish meeting because its seven-race National Hunt card, €20,000 feature hurdle and 77 current declarations provide greater overall depth than Windsor's six-race evening card. Windsor's valuable restricted novice is the strongest alternative, but it does not match Ballinrobe across the programme. The official racecourse schedule confirms seven races from 16:51 to 20:00, while Racing TV lists Good going.

The live card was checked against the Racing API and current public racecards. Three reserves in the opener and three in the 18:30 are excluded from the 77-runner total because they have no rider and do not form part of the final field. The forecast is dry, mostly sunny to partly cloudy through racing, with temperatures around 19C to 22C. Prices were checked on Oddschecker at 09:07 Europe/London.

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Today's bets at a glance

NAP: Cool Native at 2/1

NEXT BEST: Manoir De Mirande at 16/5

BEST HANDICAP BET: Chanceitlucky, 0.75pt e/w at 12/1, 5 places

Quick race guide

16:51 Adare Manor Opportunity Maiden Hurdle | 17:26 Hollymount Nursing Home Handicap Hurdle | 18:00 Paddy Smyth Memorial Mares Maiden Hurdle | 18:30 Jerry McDonnell Memorial Handicap Hurdle | 19:00 BOYLE Sports Home Of The Early Payout | 19:30 Corrib Oil Beginners | 20:00 Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Flat Race

Ballinrobe 16:51 | Coolishael | 3pt win at 8/11 (General)

NEXT BEST: Minella Post at 2/1

There is no need to manufacture novelty in the opener. Coolishael produced the best piece of hurdle form when second in a 24-runner Punchestown maiden, travelling within striking distance and working into the race before the winner proved too strong. That winner has since advertised the form, while Coolishael had already shown enough in bumpers and points to suggest the step up to this intermediate trip will not find him wanting. He is short, but the opposition is short on reliable evidence.

Minella Post is the obvious danger on an official rating of 113, though his recent record asks awkward questions. He was in contention when falling at Cork, then weakened and was pulled up at Galway. He can threaten if the return to maiden company settles him, but the favourite is much easier to trust. The reserve situation has been checked and none of the three reserves is counted in the final 15-runner field.

The latest market for this race was checked on Oddschecker.

VERDICT: Coolishael, 3pt win at 8/11. Back at 4/6 or bigger. Minella Post is next best but is not an additional official bet.

Ballinrobe 17:26 | Manoir De Mirande | 2pt win at 16/5 (BetMGM)

NEXT BEST: O'Grady Cracker at 6/4

The temptation is to follow O'Grady Cracker, who has made all or raced prominently to win his last two. He is thriving, but a rise into this stronger four-year-old handicap and top-weight pressure leave very little spare at 6/4. If he and Ocean Murphy dispute the pace, this may become a more searching test than the market assumes.

I prefer Manoir De Mirande at 16/5. Gordon Elliott's gelding won at Sligo and over this course before finding only one too good on his latest start. The Roscommon seventh is better than it looks because a loose horse badly disrupted him, and his smooth course win showed he can sit behind the pace before quickening. Joshua Halford's 7lb claim is especially valuable from a mark of 120. The case is not that O'Grady Cracker has stopped improving, but that Manoir De Mirande is the better price in a race where the favourite may have to work for control.

The latest market for this race was checked on Oddschecker.

VERDICT: Manoir De Mirande, 2pt win at 16/5. Back at 11/4 or bigger. O'Grady Cracker is next best but is not an additional official bet.

Ballinrobe 18:00 | Cool Native | 3pt win at 2/1 (Coral and Ladbrokes)

NEXT BEST: Amina at 3/1

This longer mares' maiden should reward the runner who can conserve energy, and Cool Native has repeatedly shaped as though stamina is her strength. Her third in a deep Navan maiden remains strong evidence, while she stayed on from an unpromising position at Downpatrick last month. The bare margin there understates the finish because she was still only fifth at the second-last before closing into third.

Amina is respected after placing in two bumpers and staying on for third over hurdles at Downpatrick. She may be more straightforward tactically, but Cool Native owns the better established rating and Jack Kennedy can keep her closer to the pace over this extended trip. Ronnie's Rascal brings a strong Willie Mullins stable signal but needs to jump more fluently than on her earlier hurdle runs. At 2/1, Cool Native is a proper bet rather than a speculative favourite and rates the NAP.

The latest market for this race was checked on Oddschecker.

VERDICT: Cool Native, 3pt win at 2/1. Back at 7/4 or bigger. Amina is next best but is not an additional official bet.

Ballinrobe 18:30 | Chanceitlucky | 0.75pt e/w at 12/1, 5 places (General)

NEXT BEST: Princess Felicia at 4/1

This is the race where I want to take a price. Chanceitlucky was fifth over this course and distance a fortnight ago on his first run for 267 days. He shared the lead for much of the race, went clear of his nearest pursuer and understandably tired only after being headed late. That was a much better effort than the finishing position suggests, and the return from 12 months to a mark of 82 leaves room for a sharper performance.

The 12/1 with five places makes the risk worth taking. Princess Felicia is the likeliest winner after narrowly missing at Tramore, but she is priced as though the step from two miles to nearly three is certain to suit. Gerrys Wish finished second at Wexford and is another threat, though she did her best work late after losing position. Chanceitlucky should be in the right place from the outset, and a cleaner distribution of his effort can carry him much further. He is the day's best handicap bet.

The latest market for this race was checked on Oddschecker.

VERDICT: Chanceitlucky, 0.75pt e/w at 12/1, 5 places. Back at 10/1 or bigger. Princess Felicia is next best but is not an additional official bet.

Ballinrobe 19:00 | Jazzy Matty | 3pt win at 5/2 (General)

NEXT BEST: Bunting at 3/1

There are several layers to this chase, beginning with the fact that Bowensonfire and Jazzy Matty both ran at Killarney only two days ago. Bowensonfire was a well-held third over fences, while Jazzy Matty made a mistake over hurdles before finishing sixth. The quick return is a concern for both, but Jazzy Matty's chase form is in another bracket: he was beaten only narrowly in a 20-runner Festival handicap in March and races here from the highest official chase mark.

That makes 5/2 acceptable. The sharper two miles and one furlong should let him use his jumping and tactical pace without another stamina examination. Bunting is the fascinating alternative for Willie Mullins, having led for a long way in a Galway hurdle and kept respectable company at Cheltenham and Punchestown. His chase experience is the issue at this trip and price. Jazzy Matty is preferred on proven fencing form, with Danny Gilligan able to ride him positively if the race threatens to become tactical.

The latest market for this race was checked on Oddschecker.

VERDICT: Jazzy Matty, 3pt win at 5/2. Back at 9/4 or bigger. Bunting is next best but is not an additional official bet.

Ballinrobe 19:30 | Mickie Angel | 2pt win at 9/2 (General)

NEXT BEST: Rusty Harkness at 3/1

The market is drawn to the hurdle form of Jeroboam Machin and the recent victory of Rusty Harkness, but this is a beginners' chase and proven jumping counts for plenty. Jeroboam Machin has progressed through fourth, third and second over hurdles, while Rusty Harkness won neatly at Kilbeggan after an earlier chase second. Both have obvious claims, though neither offers much margin at the front of the market.

Mickie Angel is the value at 9/2. He has finished second, third and third in his last three chases, despite making errors at Kilbeggan and having to come from well back. His Galway third came in a race where he held his position all the way to the line, and this return to nearly three miles is in his favour. The concern is that he can lose ground at his fences, but his experience gives him more routes into the race than the favourite. A round without the usual mistake should put him very close.

The latest market for this race was checked on Oddschecker.

VERDICT: Mickie Angel, 2pt win at 9/2. Back at 4/1 or bigger. Rusty Harkness is next best but is not an additional official bet.

Ballinrobe 20:00 | The Lodge Lane | 1pt e/w at 10/1, 3 places (Bet365)

NEXT BEST: She Was The One at 13/2

Willie Mullins introduces Zara's Dream and Patrick Mullins rides, so the market strength is understandable. Henry de Bromhead's newcomer Elegantemente is another who could be well above average. Neither, however, has supplied public racecourse evidence, and taking a short price about either requires a leap of faith.

The Lodge Lane offers a sounder value proposition at 10/1. She was held up on debut at Wexford, improved through the final two furlongs and kept on for third. The performance rating attached to that run is the strongest in the field, and Peter Lawlor's filly is entitled to know much more this time. Sam Connor's 7lb claim helps, while the stronger gallop expected from this larger field should suit her patient style. She Was The One is next best after a solid Galway third in an 18-runner bumper, but her experience is fully visible to the market. The Lodge Lane has the more attractive improvement-to-price balance.

The latest market for this race was checked on Oddschecker.

VERDICT: The Lodge Lane, 1pt e/w at 10/1, 3 places. Back at 8/1 or bigger. She Was The One is next best but is not an additional official bet.

Best bets of the day

Cool Native is the NAP because her staying profile, established rating and late work at Downpatrick all point to improvement over 2m6f. Manoir De Mirande is the next best at a better price than the thriving favourite, while Chanceitlucky supplies the strongest handicap angle after shaping better than fifth on his return over the same course and distance.

Full staking plan

Total recommended outlay: 16.5 points, counting each-way selections as separate win and place stakes.

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