BetOwl Daily Dossier - Naas 23rd August

Naas supplies the only Pattern race in Britain or Ireland today, and the €100,000 Group 3 Ballyogan Stakes gives this seven-race card a clear national edge. It outranks Brighton, whose feature is a Class 2 sprint rather than Pattern company. The card contains 104 current runners after Tidal Blue's withdrawal, with the first race at 14:30 and the last at 17:30.

The going is Good, the forecast is dry and mostly cloudy through racing, and the latest card shows no abandoned race. Racing TV confirms the seven-race programme and current going, while Naas Racecourse identifies the Ballyogan as the €100,000 Summer Sunday feature. Prices were checked through Oddschecker at 09:07 Europe/London and should be refreshed if betting later.

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Today's bets at a glance

NAP: Soul Love at 11/4

NEXT BEST: Millhone at 10/3

BEST HANDICAP BET: Steel Magnolia at 13/2

Quick race guide

14:30 Irish EBF Median Sires Series Fillies Maiden | 15:00 Matchbook Exchange Irish EBF Fillies Maiden | 15:30 Irish EBF Auction Series Maiden | 16:00 Tally-Ho Stud Irish EBF Ballyogan Stakes | 16:30 Big Evs At Tally-Ho Handicap | 17:00 Hartes Group Apprentice Handicap | 17:30 TRM BIOACTIVE Energy Boost Handicap

Naas 14:30 | Maeda Matsu | 2pt win at 5/1 (BetMGM, QuinnBet)

NEXT BEST: Silver Kiss at 6/4

The market is taking the safe route with Silver Kiss at 6/4, and there is no argument with her position at the head of affairs. She has been third twice, the Galway form has worked out, and seven furlongs is unlikely to inconvenience her. What I cannot accept is the idea that she is four times as likely to win as Maeda Matsu at 5/1.

Maeda Matsu was sent off at 100/1 on debut here, but she travelled like a filly with far more ability than that price implied and finished second after moving through the race professionally. This median-sires contest asks her to go another furlong, which looks a positive rather than a concern. Silver Kiss is the next best and the likeliest winner, but Maeda Matsu is the bet because the market has not fully credited that first run. The official racecard records 18 declarations and the seven-furlong conditions.

VERDICT: Maeda Matsu, 2pt win at 5/1 (BetMGM, QuinnBet). Minimum acceptable price 4/1. Silver Kiss is the principal danger.

Naas 15:00 | Red Primrose | 2pt win at 5/1 (General)

NEXT BEST: Argentarius at 2/1

This looks a more interesting maiden than the bare ratings suggest. Argentarius at 2/1 has the best established sprint form after her Cork second, and dropping back from seven furlongs should help. She is the next best, but the price is doing a good deal of the thinking for us.

Red Primrose at 5/1 was the one I wanted to take from the five-furlong maiden here in June. She was still sixth at halfway, then stayed on strongly for third without ever being placed to challenge. The extra furlong is tailor-made, and the form has since received several boosts. The stands-side draw gives Gary Carroll options, and at this price I would rather back the filly with the clearest improvement angle than accept a short quote about Argentarius. Irish Racing also identifies the extra furlong and strengthened debut form as central positives.

VERDICT: Red Primrose, 2pt win at 5/1 (General). Minimum acceptable price 4/1. Argentarius is the principal danger.

Naas 15:30 | Roeillaun | 1pt e/w at 7/1 (General - 3 places)

NEXT BEST: Zoar at 8/11

There is no disguising that Zoar at 8/11 sets the standard. His course-and-distance second came in a deep 18-runner race, and subsequent performances by those around him have made the form look better. If he repeats it for his new stable he should win. The problem is that he has been priced as though there is no uncertainty at all.

Roeillaun at 7/1 offers the better bet. Her Curragh second was a transformation from earlier efforts, but it was achieved in a large field and she moved through the race like the progress was real. She receives 11lb from Zoar and has racecraft that the newcomers cannot guarantee. Zoar is the next best, while Roeillaun is the each-way value with three places secured. The racecard confirms Zoar's strong form line and Roeillaun's weight advantage.

VERDICT: Roeillaun, 1pt e/w at 7/1 (General - 3 places). Minimum acceptable price 6/1. If the best quote shortens to 6/1, switch to 2pt win under the fixed price band. Zoar is the principal danger.

Naas 16:00 | Soul Love | 2pt win at 11/4 (General)

NEXT BEST: First Instinct at 6/4

The Ballyogan is the best race on the card and the market has concentrated on First Instinct at 6/4. Her close York second is a proper Group 3 performance, and she finished ahead of Soul Love there. She is the obvious next best, but this is not York and the return to Naas changes the tactical balance.

Soul Love at 11/4 has won two Listed races this season and was authoritative over this course and distance last month. She is progressive, race-fit and likely to be closer to the pace than First Instinct when the field commits. Havana Anna commands respect on her Royal Ascot fourth and unbeaten Naas record, yet her Curragh run was below par. Soul Love has fewer questions to answer today and is the NAP. The official feature page confirms the €100,000 Group 3 status.

VERDICT: Soul Love, 2pt win at 11/4 (General). Minimum acceptable price 5/2. If only 5/2 remains, the fixed band requires 3pt win. First Instinct is the principal danger.

Naas 16:30 | Steel Magnolia | 2pt win at 13/2 (General)

NEXT BEST: Dandy Land at 6/1

The temptation is to follow Dandy Land at 6/1, who deserved her course-and-distance success after two promising placed runs. She is lightly raced and still improving, but a 7lb rise means she must now give Steel Magnolia at 13/2 a substantial amount of weight.

Steel Magnolia was only narrowly behind the winner here earlier in the month and again shaped as though a mark in the mid-40s underestimates her. Her high draw puts her beside the most credible pace, and she has already shown that she can hold a position before finishing. Dandy Land is the next best, but Steel Magnolia is the best handicap bet because the revised terms give her the cleaner value case. The public formscan confirms the recent course form shared by the pair.

VERDICT: Steel Magnolia, 2pt win at 13/2 (General). Minimum acceptable price 11/2. Dandy Land is the principal danger.

Naas 17:00 | Millhone | 2pt win at 10/3 (General)

NEXT BEST: Tero d'Rosa at 17/2

This is wide open on ratings, but Millhone at 10/3 has the profile I trust most. She has finished second by half a length on each of her last two starts, first at Naas and then at Cork, and the latter effort confirmed that eleven to twelve furlongs is her territory.

The handicapper has added another 4lb, but the three-year-old allowance and Rory Mulligan's claim leave her with a workable burden. Tero d'Rosa at 17/2 is the next best because Shane Markey's 7lb claim puts her effectively below her latest winning mark, while her recent consistency offers more security than several rivals. Reserve Yquem would be respected if getting a run but is not an advised selection. The racecard details Millhone's two close seconds and Tero d'Rosa's effective mark.

VERDICT: Millhone, 2pt win at 10/3 (General). Minimum acceptable price 3/1. Tero d'Rosa is the principal danger.

Naas 17:30 | Guardian Of Realm | 1pt e/w at 7/1 (Sky Bet - 4 places)

NEXT BEST: Minella Rockett at 7/2

There are several plausible improvers here. Minella Rockett at 7/2 won a Galway handicap after scoring over hurdles and is the next best, while Diamond Exchange brings a recent course-and-distance success. Port Of Spain drops sharply in grade, although his mark still asks him to rediscover last season's best.

Guardian Of Realm at 7/1 with four places is the value. He made all at Fairyhouse with a clear margin and this field does not contain many rivals who want to press him early. A 12lb rise is serious and he returns from 87 days away, but those risks are reflected in the price and enhanced place concession. If Chris Hayes controls the fractions, Guardian Of Realm can make the frame at worst and may prove difficult to pass. The race conditions and recent form are cross-checked on the current card.

VERDICT: Guardian Of Realm, 1pt e/w at 7/1 (Sky Bet - 4 places). Minimum acceptable price 7/1 with 4 places. Minella Rockett is the principal danger.

Best bets of the day

Soul Love is the NAP because her course-and-distance authority, progression and likely tactical position outweigh First Instinct's narrow York advantage. Millhone is next best after two close seconds under conditions that again suit, while Steel Magnolia is the strongest handicap angle on revised terms with Dandy Land.

Full staking plan

Total recommended outlay: 14 points, counting each-way selections as separate win and place stakes.

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