Nathan MacKinnon supplied a goal and three assists as Colorado beat Tampa Bay 6-3 at Ball Arena, but the important detail was when his fourth point arrived. The Lightning had twice reduced a three-goal deficit. Early in the final period, MacKinnon scored to push the gap back to three and leave the visitors chasing again.
The result was a reminder that a shot advantage and a manageable-looking deficit are not the same as control. Tampa Bay finished with 34 shots to Colorado's 24. Yet after the Avalanche went three ahead, the Lightning never got closer than two. Their pressure produced chances and goals without producing the narrow finish they needed.
The lead was built before the chase began
Devon Toews opened the scoring after 1:08, with Martin Necas and MacKinnon credited with the assists. Nazem Kadri added a power-play goal at 5:52, his first of the season, with T.J. Hughes and MacKinnon setting it up. Colorado had a two-goal lead before the opening period was six minutes old.
Fedor Svechkov made it 3-0 just 24 seconds into the second period. That timing matters. Tampa Bay had an intermission to reset, but the next scoring event increased its deficit rather than reducing it. Colorado did not need to win a late scramble to establish an advantage: it had created room for error with almost two periods still to play.
MacKinnon's involvement was substantial without being exclusive. He assisted the first two goals, but Svechkov's strike came with Jaden Schwartz supplying the assist. Six different Avalanche players eventually scored. Calling this simply a one-man performance would miss the breadth of the finishing, even if MacKinnon was central to the decisive exchanges.
Three replies, no one-goal game
Jake Guentzel gave Tampa Bay its first goal at 8:13 of the second period, on the power play. Artturi Lehkonen answered at 13:57, with MacKinnon and Toews recording the assists. Guentzel then scored again at 19:17, making the score 4-2 with 43 seconds left before the interval.
That was the point at which a different third period remained possible. The Lightning were two behind rather than three, and one more goal would have changed the pressure on every subsequent possession. Instead, MacKinnon scored at 4:18 of the third, assisted by Lehkonen and Necas, to make it 5-2.
Charle-Edouard D'Astous reduced the deficit again at 15:13. There were 4:47 remaining, enough time to sustain a chase but not much margin for another concession. Necas scored into an empty net at 17:19. The final gap returned to three, with 2:41 still on the clock.
| Tampa Bay goal | Score afterwards | Next Colorado goal |
|---|---|---|
| Guentzel, second period 8:13 | Colorado 3-1 | Lehkonen, 13:57 |
| Guentzel, second period 19:17 | Colorado 4-2 | MacKinnon, third period 4:18 |
| D'Astous, third period 15:13 | Colorado 5-3 | Necas, 17:19, empty net |
The scoring sequence shows why the comeback never became a one-goal contest. Colorado's next goal followed each Tampa Bay goal. That is an account of this game, not evidence that the Avalanche can reliably repeat the same response in another fixture.
Why the shot count needs an empty-net adjustment
Colorado scored six times from 24 shots, a team shooting percentage of 25%. Tampa Bay scored three times from 34, approximately 8.8%. The difference is large, but it needs to be read correctly: the Avalanche's final goal was scored without a goalkeeper in the net.
Andrei Vasilevskiy faced 23 shots and saved 18. His five goals conceded therefore should not be divided by Colorado's full team shot total when assessing his night. Mackenzie Blackwood faced all 34 Tampa Bay shots and made 31 saves. Those are separate goalkeeper records, not an invitation to assume that every shot carried equal danger.
Nor does the final score establish a repeatable 25% finishing standard. One game combines the chances created, the players finishing them, the saves made and the changing incentives of the score. A side protecting a lead and a side chasing it are not operating under identical conditions. The numbers describe the outcome; they do not turn it into a forecast.
MacKinnon's influence went beyond his own shot
MacKinnon finished with four shots, one goal and three assists in 18:10 of ice time. He was directly credited on four of Colorado's six scoring plays: two early assists, another on Lehkonen's goal, and his own third-period strike. That is two-thirds of the team's goals with a MacKinnon point attached, not two-thirds of its total attacking work.
Necas contributed a goal and two assists, while Lehkonen and Toews each supplied a goal and an assist. On the other side, Guentzel's seven shots yielded two goals, and Brayden Point recorded two assists. Nikita Kucherov finished without a goal or assist from his two shots. The contrast is specific to this game and should not be stretched into a broader judgement about either team's leading players.
Readers following the wider US Sports coverage can place this result alongside the recent Dallas comeback led by Rantanen. The distinction here is that Colorado built its lead early and kept restoring it. There was no need for overtime or a last-minute winner to decide the game.
For anyone considering a future bet, the useful question is what can be supported beyond this scoreline, not how to chase the same six-goal return. This is match analysis, not a selection or an odds recommendation. Betting is for over-18s, losses are possible, and the responsible-gambling guidance should come before any decision to stake money.
The hero photograph is an archive Colorado-Seattle match image from April 2023, not this Tampa Bay fixture.