Double Chance and Draw No Bet Explained

The essentials

Draw no bet and double chance are football markets built from the same three possible regulation-time results as ordinary match odds: home win, draw and away win. They change the pay-off rather than the match itself. Draw no bet removes the draw as a losing result by returning the stake when the match finishes level. Double chance combines two results, so a selection can win through either of the named outcomes.

That protection comes at a price. A draw-no-bet quote will ordinarily be shorter than the corresponding home or away match price, while double chance is usually shorter again because it covers two results without requiring a refund. The useful question is not which market sounds safer. It is whether the price fairly reflects the exact outcomes that win, lose or return the stake.

Map the three outcomes before comparing prices

A standard football result market can be written as 1X2: 1 for the home win, X for the draw and 2 for the away win. Draw no bet and double chance simply redistribute those three outcomes.

The distinction matters in accumulators. A draw-no-bet leg that is void is ordinarily removed from the multiple, subject to the operator's rules. A successful double-chance leg remains a winning leg at its accepted price. Never assume that the two products are interchangeable because both can involve the draw.

Confirm the settlement period

Standard football markets commonly settle on the result after 90 minutes plus added time. Extra time and kicks from the penalty mark normally do not count unless the market explicitly says otherwise. This becomes especially important in knockout matches, where a team can draw the regulation-time contest and still qualify later.

For a home draw-no-bet selection, a 1-1 score after regulation time ordinarily returns the stake even if the home side wins in extra time. A home-or-draw double-chance selection ordinarily wins on that same 1-1 regulation-time score. A market labelled “to qualify” answers a different question.

The current Laws of the Game define a standard match as two 45-minute halves and permit added time for time lost. Bookmaker rules govern how a bet is settled, including postponed, abandoned and rearranged matches. The Gambling Commission requires licensed operators to publish core acceptance and settlement rules, so check the market description and retain the electronic receipt.

The mathematics of draw no bet

A useful way to understand draw no bet is to condition the result on the match not finishing level. Suppose your fair probabilities are 45% home win, 30% draw and 25% away win. Once the 30% draw is removed, 70% probability remains across the two decisive results.

The conditional chance of the home team winning is 45 divided by 70, or 64.29%. The corresponding fair draw-no-bet decimal price is 1 divided by 0.6429, which is approximately 1.56. For the away team, 25 divided by 70 gives 35.71%, corresponding to fair odds of 2.80.

An equivalent fair-odds formula is (1 - draw probability) ÷ team-win probability. For the home side, 0.70 ÷ 0.45 again gives 1.56. These figures are only as reliable as the starting probabilities, and an offered market will normally contain margin.

Calculate expected value with the refund included

Draw no bet has three cash-flow outcomes, so a simple win-or-lose calculation is incomplete. At decimal odds of 1.62, a £10 home draw-no-bet bet returns £16.20 after a home win, £10 after a draw and nothing after an away win.

The refund is not profit, and it should not be described as a winning result. It simply restores the original stake on one outcome.

How to price double chance

For a fair double-chance price, add the probabilities of the two covered results and take the reciprocal. With the same 45% home, 30% draw and 25% away assessment, home or draw has a 75% fair probability and fair decimal odds of 1.33. Draw or away has a 55% fair probability and fair odds of 1.82. Home or away has a 70% fair probability and fair odds of 1.43.

This addition works because the three regulation-time results are mutually exclusive. Do not add probabilities in the same way for markets that can occur together, such as a home win and over 2.5 goals.

Compare match odds, draw no bet and double chance fairly

The headline decimal number is not enough because each market has a different pay-off. A home match price might be 2.20, home draw no bet 1.62 and home or draw 1.30. The lower quotes do not automatically offer worse value. They purchase different protection.

Compare the offered price with your fair price for that exact market. Do not choose draw no bet merely because you are nervous about the draw, or double chance merely because two outcomes look safer. A shorter price can still be poor value.

Convert a fair 1X2 market into draw-no-bet odds

If you begin with bookmaker 1X2 odds, first remove the margin rather than treating the raw implied probabilities as fair. One simple baseline is to calculate each implied probability and divide it by their total. More advanced margin-removal methods can distribute the overround differently, so the result remains an estimate.

1. Collect home, draw and away prices for the same match and settlement period.
2. Convert each decimal price to raw implied probability using 1 divided by the odds.
3. Normalise the three probabilities so they total 100%.
4. Remove the draw and divide each team probability by home plus away.
5. Take the reciprocal to obtain a fair draw-no-bet comparison price.
6. Compare that baseline with the available quote and your own football assessment.

BetOwl's guides to implied probability and bookmaker margin explain the first three steps in more detail.

When the markets can be useful

Draw no bet can express a view that one team is more likely than the other to win a decisive match, while acknowledging a meaningful draw probability. Double chance can suit an assessment that a team is unlikely to lose, or that a match is unlikely to finish level when 12 is selected. The market still needs an adequate price.

These products can also make assumptions easier to see. If a modeller strongly prefers the home side but gives the draw a large probability, the gap between match odds and draw no bet reveals the cost of removing that draw risk. If the double-chance price is extremely short, the potential return may be too small to justify uncertainty or inclusion in a multiple.

Using draw no bet or double chance in accumulators

Short prices are often added to accumulators because they appear to make the bet safer. This can be misleading. Each leg must still justify its place at the available price, and bookmaker margin can compound across several selections.

If a draw-no-bet leg is void after a draw, it is commonly settled at odds of 1.00 and removed from the multiple, leaving the other legs active. Exact rules control the settlement. A winning double-chance leg is settled at the accepted price. Read the operator's rules for abandoned matches, palpable errors, related selections and any promotional enhancement.

The complete accumulator guide covers combined probability, correlation, void legs and the psychology of large potential returns.

Common mistakes

• Assuming draw no bet pays a profit when the match is drawn.
• Including extra time in a market settled after regulation time.
• Comparing the decimal prices without comparing their pay-offs.
• Calculating expected value as though a refunded draw were a loss.
• Using raw bookmaker implied probabilities without allowing for margin.
• Calling double chance safe because it covers two outcomes.
• Adding short double-chance legs to an accumulator without assessing value.
• Ignoring postponement, abandonment and venue-change rules.
• Confusing draw no bet with Asian handicap zero without checking settlement details.

A controlled decision process

1. Confirm the fixture, venue and regulation-time settlement period.
2. Write probabilities for home win, draw and away win that sum to 100%.
3. Calculate fair prices for match odds, draw no bet and relevant double chance.
4. Compare identical markets across operators and record availability.
5. Test a reasonable range around each probability estimate.
6. Choose the market only if its price compensates for its exact pay-off.
7. Set an affordable stake before the match and never chase an earlier result.
8. Save the receipt and review the settlement against the published rules.

Draw no bet and double chance questions answered

What happens to draw no bet if the match is drawn?

The stake is ordinarily returned when the defined match period ends level. Check the operator's published rules for the specific market.

Is draw no bet the same as double chance?

No. Draw no bet returns the stake on the draw, while double chance treats two named outcomes as winners.

Does extra time count?

Not in a standard regulation-time market unless the market explicitly states otherwise. Added time at the end of each half ordinarily counts.

Is draw no bet the same as Asian handicap zero?

The pay-off is often equivalent, with a win paying and a draw returning the stake, but product presentation and operator rules can differ. Check the precise market before comparing prices.

Use the protection responsibly

A refund condition or two-outcome selection does not remove gambling risk. It changes the distribution of returns and usually reduces the available price. Understanding the calculation can improve clarity, but it cannot make a football result certain.

Set affordable money and time limits before betting, never use money required for essential costs, and do not increase a stake to recover a previous loss. If gambling is affecting your finances, relationships or wellbeing, call the National Gambling Helpline free on 0808 8020 133.